When to Buy... When to Sell.

Timing The

Real Estate Market

              The California housing market is "Safe"

                                                  - Bruce Norris

Date:  June 19, 2018

Place:  North San Diego Real Estate Investors Club in Oceanside, CA

               Bruce Norris, a real estate investor and fellow housing

market analyst, spoke last night - and when asked how he would

describe the broad California housing market, he said "safe."

               And what about the Southern California market?

               "Even safer," replied Mr. Norris.

               While myexpectation is that California housing prices will fall sharply after they peak out, my friend Bruce Norris does not - and here's what he is forecasting:  

               1.  CA housing prices will not fall like they did after the 2006 downturn.  This is  because home loans are more restrictive today than they were during 2000-2006.  Thus, there will not be another "foreclosure glut" - and there will be minimal price damage after housing prices hit a peak. 

               2.  Construction of new CA homes (i.e. supply) has not kept up with demand - which acts as a support to current price levels.

               3.  When the CA housing affordability index hits 17%, that will signal the peak.  It was 31% in Q1 2018 according to The California Association of Realtors.

               4.  If we have a 'Tech Bust" in the San Francisco Bay area, any damage to Bay area housing prices will be localized - and will not spill over to other CA housing markets.

               5.  The Fed is raising rates so they can lower them 4-5 percentage points to fight the next recession when it occurs.  Norris expects mortgage rates to fall to the 2% range during that time - which will be a great time to refinance your mortgage loans.


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