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"SELL
Your Home While There is Still Time?"
"Get
Out While You Can?"
Fueled
by artificially low interest rates - Alan Greenspan
and Company now face the fact that they have likely created an
enormous
housing bubble that could blindside millions of Americans . . .
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Dear
Real Estate Investor:
Like
it or not, Alan Greenspan and his merry bankers are starting to
realize that they have created a dangerous bubble in the housing markets
... a housing bubble that could blow up at any moment and send home prices
into a downward tailspin.
By keeping interest rates at the lowest levels in 50 years after the
2000-2001 recession, it was the Fed's intention to do whatever was
needed to stimulate a struggling U.S. economy and fight a possible
deflation.
Even though the economic recovery took more time to take hold than
expected, the effect of super-low interest rates eventually worked
its magic.
Now that the United States economy is expanding a strong 4 to 6
percent rate, the Fed has a different problem that it must fight ..
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Inflation!
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) - the
benchmark for measuring the rate of inflation - has nearly tripled
in the last 12 months. The CPI was 1.2 percent in 2002 and it
is now at 3 percent and its rate of climb is accelerating.
To fight inflation, the Fed has no choice but to raise interest
rates. And in April 2004, Alan Greenspan gave us a loud and
clear warning ...
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| "National
housing prices going back to 1951...pretty much track
the rate of inflation up until 1995. But since then,
average prices on new and existing home have soared more
than 35 percentage points beyond the overall rate of
inflation. Is that unusual? You bet it is."
- BusinessWeek, April
12, 2004 |
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"Rate hikes are coming."
But now comes the delicate balancing
act. Can the Fed raise interest rates to keep inflation from
becoming a real problem without risking a major downturn in the U.S.
housing markets?
Mortgage rates have dropped from 8.5% in the year 2000 to 5% in
2004. This caused the median price home in the United States
to soar by nearly 30 percent -- the greatest and most rapid price
rise ever.
Can the housing market stay strong if interest rates go back to
8.5%?
Maybe, but probably not.
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| "A
rise in long-term interest rates, which would push up
mortgage rates, could collapse the housing bubble faster
than anything else.
- BusinessWeek, April 12,
2004 |
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Dire Economic Predictions
In fact, some economists are making dire predictions that even the
slightest rise in interest rates will puncture this housing bubble
and trigger an absolute disaster for U.S. home prices.
They predict the bust will be especially bad in those cities that
are most overvalued.
The Economist - one of the most respected financial
publications in the world today - believes that the U.S. housing
bubble is definitely real - and not just a topic for the perpetual
writers of impending doom and gloom - and that U.S. housing prices
will fall by at least 20%.
Whatever happens, one thing is certain: To protect yourself
against a possible collapse of housing prices in your city,
you have to find a way to stay ahead of the curve so you can see it
coming.
How to Protect Yourself
My
book Timing the Real Estate Market shows you how to
stay ahead of the curve. It shows you five key indicators that
have a 21-year track record for accurately predicting the coming
peaks (and the valleys) of real estate cycles.
Remember this: Market knowledge is
the first step toward protecting your money against a possible real
estate catastrophe that could set you back not just years, but
decades.
This is no time to be complacent.
I urge you to read it.
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Sincerely,
Robert M. Campbell Author / Real Estate
Advisor |
One
more thing: Many veteran market watchers believe if the
California real estate market starts to crack, most of the
housing markets in the United States will soon follow.
I
write The Campbell Real Estate Timing
Letter for Southern California real estate investors that want
to stay ahead of the curve and ahead of inevitable trend
changes.
To read the most current issue, Click
Here.
Buy
Low, Sell Now? To see this amazing chart of housing prices, Click
Here. |