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"SELL Your Home While There is Still Time?"  

"Get Out While You Can?"

Fueled by artificially low interest rates - Alan Greenspan
and Company now face the fact that they have likely created an enormous 
housing bubble that could blindside millions of Americans . . .

 

Dear Real Estate Investor:  

        Like it or not, Alan Greenspan and his merry bankers are starting to realize that they have created a dangerous bubble in the housing markets ... a housing bubble that could blow up at any moment and send home prices into a downward tailspin.

        By keeping interest rates at the lowest levels in 50 years after the 2000-2001 recession, it was the Fed's intention to do whatever was needed to stimulate a struggling U.S. economy and fight a possible deflation.

        Even though the economic recovery took more time to take hold than expected, the effect of super-low interest rates eventually worked its magic.  

        Now that the United States economy is expanding a strong 4 to 6 percent rate, the Fed has a different problem that it must fight .. . 

     
Inflation!

      The Consumer Price Index (CPI) - the benchmark for measuring the rate of inflation - has nearly tripled in the last 12 months.  The CPI was 1.2 percent in 2002 and it is now at 3 percent and its rate of climb is accelerating.

      To fight inflation, the Fed has no choice but to raise interest rates.  And in April 2004, Alan Greenspan gave us a loud and clear warning ...

"National housing prices going back to 1951...pretty much track the rate of inflation up until 1995. But since then, average prices on new and existing home have soared more than 35 percentage points beyond the overall rate of inflation. Is that unusual? You bet it is."

- BusinessWeek, April 12, 2004

                                                     
"Rate hikes are coming."

     
But now comes the delicate balancing act.  Can the Fed raise interest rates to keep inflation from becoming a real problem without risking a major downturn in the U.S. housing markets? 

      Mortgage rates have dropped from 8.5% in the year 2000 to 5% in 2004.  This caused the median price home in the United States to soar by nearly 30 percent -- the greatest and most rapid price rise ever.  

     Can the housing market stay strong if interest rates go back to 8.5%?

     Maybe, but probably not.

"A rise in long-term interest rates, which would push up mortgage rates, could collapse the housing bubble faster than anything else.

- BusinessWeek, April 12, 2004

                                                            Dire Economic Predictions

        In fact, some economists are making dire predictions that even the slightest rise in interest rates will puncture this housing bubble and  trigger an absolute disaster for U.S. home prices.  They predict the bust will be especially bad in those cities that are most overvalued.

        The Economist - one of the most respected financial publications in the world today - believes that the U.S. housing bubble is definitely real - and not just a topic for the perpetual writers of impending doom and gloom - and that U.S. housing prices will fall by at least 20%.

        Whatever happens, one thing is certain:  To protect yourself against a possible collapse of housing prices in your city,  you have to find a way to stay ahead of the curve so you can see it coming.

                                                          How to Protect Yourself 

         My book Timing the Real Estate Market shows you how to stay ahead of the curve.  It shows you five key indicators that have a 21-year track record for accurately predicting the coming peaks (and the valleys) of real estate cycles. 

        Remember this:  Market knowledge is the first step toward protecting your money against a possible real estate catastrophe that could set you back not just years, but decades. 

        This is no time to be complacent. 

         I urge you to read it.  

Sincerely,

Robert M. Campbell
Author / Real Estate Advisor

One more thing:  Many veteran market watchers believe if the California real estate market starts to crack, most of  the housing markets in the United States will soon follow.  

            I write The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter for Southern California real estate investors that want to stay ahead of the curve and ahead of inevitable trend changes.  

            To read the most current issue, Click Here. 

Buy Low, Sell Now?  To see this amazing chart of housing prices, Click Here.


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