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Frequently Asked Questions
1. What is Real Estate Timing and why should I care?
Real Estate Timing
is a financial model for timing real estate markets. It uses an
automated market-timing methodology for making high-probability
buying and selling decisions.
Based on key data that I call Vital Signs, the methodology is applied
to 17 major U.S. housing markets and adheres to what I believe are
three irrefutable market truths:
The market-timing methodology (model) presented on this site tracks 17 major U.S. housing markets to determine the best time to buy and sell for the greatest profits.
The model’s underlying assumption is that you (1) get into rising markets early; (2) ride the trend higher; (3) sell when the market has peaked out or (4) move your money into another housing market that is likely in the early stages of a new rising trend. This website attempts to identify rising and falling real estate trends for the following U.S. cities:
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Atlanta Boston
Chicago Dallas Denver Detroit
Las Vegas
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Miami New York
Phoenix
San Francisco Tampa Washington DC |
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When the market-timing model gives a buy signal for a specific city, this represents a low-risk buying opportunity that could lead to significant profits in the 3 to 6 years that follow.
When the market-timing model gives a sell signal, this represents an opportunity to take profits at or near the peak of the market – and before housing prices possibly go into what could be a severe decline.
The buy and sell signals
shown on all 17 charts are posted roughly 12 months after the
signals occur. If you want to be informed about the buy and sell signals as they occur, you can subscribe to The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter. If you want to learn the market timing methodology used on this site – and how to track real estate trends on your own – read Robert Campbell’s book Timing the Real Estate Market.
Robert
Campbell, owner of the site and author of the market timing model has a
degree in Economics from UCLA and an MBA from San Diego State
University.
Robert
Campbell started writing a real estate timing advisory for Southern
California real estate investors in 1993 – and continues to do so
today. To
find out about The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter,
CLICK
HERE. To help real estate investors that would like to know the best time to buy and sell, this site attempts to time 17 major housing markets all across the United States.
The
formula for the timing model is proprietary, but broadly speaking, technical
indicators are used to measure the forces of supply and demand that
moves the real estate markets.
These
technical indicators identify housing markets that are likely to
experience price appreciation. The timing model is more growth
oriented than value oriented in that market momentum and
trend-following indicators play a central role.
Once a
buy signal is generated, historical rates of price appreciation can
be used to determine which cities may experience the highest rates
of future price appreciation.
To learn
more about my technical indicators and my timing model, read Timing the Real Estate Market.
Based
upon the 28-year track record that is presented in my book Timing
the Real Estate Market, my market timing methodology has correctly
predicted major trend changes in the Southern California real estate
with a success rate of around 80% to 85%.
So
yes, as the publisher of a respected and widely read real estate
timing advisory, I believe that market timing does indeed work.
This site is designed to prove that my market timing methodology can
also be successfully applied to other major U.S. housing markets
outside of Southern California.
Certainly, but based on the 1982 to 2009 track record that puts its
accuracy rate right between 80 to 85%, the timing model is far more
likely to be right than wrong.
And
because when the timing model is right, it is usually really right …
and when it is wrong, it is only slightly wrong … the model is
designed to maximize return while reducing risk – and it seems to
work.
Of
course, saying market timing CAN deliver higher returns with less
risk is not the same thing as claiming it WILL. An impressive track
record is never a guarantee of massive, immediate, and automatic
future wealth. The reason for this is that markets can act
differently in the future than they have in the past – making
reality different than theory.
It is. There can be
capital gains taxes with every sale and brokerage commissions with
every transaction. But expense is only half of the equation. Return
on investment must also be factored into the calculation.
The real
issue is whether the gains derived from timing - after taxes and
commissions have been paid - exceed the gains from simply buying and
holding.
Timers
can minimize expenses by using discount real estate brokers.
Taxes,
however, are a fact of life. If you hate paying taxes, your only
recourse is (1) to stop making money or (2) use a 1031 Tax-Deferred
Exchange to roll-over all of the equity from the sale of an
investment property into the purchase of one or more other like-kind
investment properties – thus deferring any capital gains taxes
otherwise due. If you prefer to buy and hold forever in a specific market, use market timing to identify the best and most profitable time to buy – which means getting into a rising housing trend early.
Buy-and-hold investing
means holding real estate until they plant you in the cemetery.
In reality, there are
two types of buy-and-hold investing – the stuff dreams are made of,
and the stuff everyone ends up doing.
When some financial sage
tells you “If you bought California real estate in the 1960s, you’d
be a zillionaire today” that person is technically right but he’s in
the dreamer camp. Why? Because virtually no one ever stays 100%
invested in the same piece of real estate for 40 years – the reason
being that market’s change, lives change, and so do people’s
appetite for “risk.”
Those who would invest
their money according to this timing model should believe that
data-driven real estate forecasts are more reliable than luck,
intuition, or hope. This person should believe that good timing
pays the highest returns, and bad timing can carry the highest
costs.
Other criteria include the following: 1. A person who wants early warning alerts of impending housing market peaks
and valleys – and
likely trend reversals. 2. A person who understands that getting into a rising market early is better than getting in late.
3. A person who understand that getting out of a falling market early is better
than getting out late. 3. A person who wants to follow a time-tested methodology – as opposed to
emotional impulses. 4. A person that knows that hard word by itself is insufficient for success – the
effort must also be
intelligent. 5. A person who has a medium 3 to 6 year time horizon for owning a piece of
property. 6. A person who is willing to accept personal responsibility for risk that is implicit in one’s actions.
Just remember that all mathematical models are the product of
imperfect human beings. If you invest according to the model – do
so at your own risk. Very conservative investors may not be
comfortable with the idea of market timing, and therefore should
avoid it. More active investors, however, could be well-rewarded
with market timing if they conclude that it is a viable means for
controlling risk and making better investment decisions.
The information on this
site is no substitute for the services of a professional investment
advisor. Investment recommendations to buy and sell may no be
appropriate for all investors. Recommendations are made without
consideration of your financial sophistication, financial situation,
or tolerance for risk. Those who use this timing information are
urged to consult with their own independent financial advisers with
respect to any investment.
Past performance is no
guarantee of future results. Signals from my timing model are for
informational purposes only. All investments carry risk to
principal. Anyone using this site for investment purposes does so
at his or her own risk.
Data accuracy cannot be
guaranteed. Data used in this timing model is from sources believed
to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or
implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or
correctness. We are not liable for any errors or inaccuracies,
regardless of cause, or for the lack of timeliness of, or for any
delay or interruptions in, the transmission of this timing
information to those who chose to use it.
This is a private Web site providing a private service. No part of
its content may be copied or forwarded to anyone else; the sole
exception is a one-time forwarding to inform others of this service.
No. The only reason I collect email addresses is to notify you of
speeches and seminars that I am giving – as well as any other
special announcements that I feel may be valuable to you. Your name
and email addresses will be kept in confidence – and your privacy
will always be respected.
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